Khofifah has tiny lead in E. Java poll

By Ridwan Max Sijabat
Source : The Jakarta Post

The second round of the East Java gubernatorial election is likely to be the closest race the province has seen, with Khofifah and Mudjiono only slightly ahead of rival pair Soekarwo and Saifullah Yusuf in opinion polls.

According to a recent survey, if the second round was held now, 37.6 percent of respondents would vote for Khofifah and Mudjiono (or Kaji, as the pair is known), and 36.4 percent for Soekarwo and Saifullah (Karsa).

The survey, conducted by the National Survey Institute (LSN) and Surabaya Survey Centre (SSC) from Sept. 11 to Sept. 17, polled 784 voters from different ethnic, economic and political backgrounds across all 38 regencies and municipalities in the province.

Political support is growing for Kaji thanks to female voters supporting a woman candidate and backing from parties defeated in the first round, SSC executive director Umar S. Bakry said at the presentation of the survey findings Monday.

"Most respondents chose Khofifah because she is a woman and they like the way she speaks and thinks and she appears an intelligent figure," he said.

Umar said that according to the survey, 82.5 percent of respondents were aware of Soekarwo and his running mate and 82.4 percent knew of Khofifah and Mudjiono.

"Karsa is only 0.1 percent better known than Kaji. This could change depending on how the two contenders approach religious and informal leaders and major political parties in the province," Umar said.

He said that 37.9 percent of respondents knew about Karsa's vision, mission and political programs, with 34.7 percent aware of Kaji's political programs.

"As far as public performance goes, 29.2 percent prefer the political speeches and issues raised by Karsa and 25.2 percent prefer those raised by Kaji," he said,

The survey was conducted using multistage random sampling with a margin of error of 3.5 percent and a confidence interval of 95 percent.

Umar said Soekarwo and Saifullah found their main political support in Lamongan, Ngawi, Magetan, Trenggalek, Madiun municipality, Kediri, Tulungagung, Lumajang, Situbondo, Bangkalan and Pamekasan.

Khofifah and Moedjiono are dominant in Malang municipality and regency, Probolinggo municipality and regency, Pasuruan municipality and regency, Tuban, Jombang, Madiun regency, Surabaya, Bojonegoro and Sampang.

"In other regencies and municipalities, both have relatively equal amounts of political support," he said.

He added that 20.2 percent of the respondents had yet to determine their choice and 5.7 percent said they would not vote, for unspecified reasons.

To consolidate their position going into the second round, Khofifah and Moedjiono, who were nominated by the United Development Party (PPP) and endorsed by Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the largest Muslim organization, are touring all regencies and municipalities during Ramadan and seeking support from major political parties, including the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Golkar Party.

Soekarwo and Saifullah have also organized several political campaign rallies with the ulema outside NU in a bid to win over voters.

They have deployed teams to campaign at the grassroots level during the fasting month.

Political observers said the two camps were active at the grassroots in a bid to win support from the 38 percent of eligible voters who did not vote in the first round in June.

About 27 million eligible voters are expected to vote in the second round scheduled for Nov. 4, 2008.